Corps professoral et Recherche

Publications : Martellini, L.; B. Urosevic - Static Mean-Variance Analysis with Uncertain Time Horizon


Martellini, L.; B. Urosevic (Juillet 2005) "Static Mean-Variance Analysis with Uncertain Time Horizon", EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre, EDHEC Working Paper.

[This page in english]

Résumé

We generalize Markowitz analysis to the situations involving an uncertain exit time. Our approach preserves the form of the original problem in that an investor minimizes portfolio variance for a given level of the expected return. However, inputs are now given by the generalized expressions for mean and variance-covariance matrix involving moments of the random exit time in addition to the conditional moments of asset returns. While efficient frontiers in the generalized and the standard Markowitz case may coincide under certain conditions, we demonstrate, by means of an example, that in general that is not true. In particular, portfolios efficient in the standard Markowitz sense can be inefficient in the generalized sense and vice versa. As a result, an investor facing an uncertain time-horizon and investing as if her time of exit is certain would in general make sub-optimal portfolio allocation decisions. Numerical simulations show that a significant efficiency loss can be induced by an improper use of standard mean-variance analysis when time-horizon is uncertain.


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Les opinions exprimées sont celles de l'auteur et n'engagent pas la responsabilité de l'EDHEC.

EDHEC_Working_Paper_Static_Mean-Variance_ Analysis
[Texte intégral - En anglais - PDF
21 pages - 1,19 Mo]
 
 

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